The Tragedy Of Hamlet Essays (947 words) - Shakespearean Tragedies

The Tragedy of Hamlet Arguably, the best piece of writing ever done by William Shakespeare, Hamlet is the classic example of a tragedy. In all tragedies the hero suffers, and usually dies at the end. Othello stabs himself, Romeo and Juliet commit suicide, Brutis falls on his sword, and like them Hamlet dies by getting cut with a poison tipped sword. But that is not all tht is need to consider a play a tragedy, and sometimes a hero doesn't even need to die. Not every play in which a hero dies is considered a tragedy. There are more elements needed to label a play one. Probably the most important element is an amount of free will. In every tragedy, the characters must display some. If every action is controlled by a hero's destiny, then the hero's death can't be avoided, and in a tragedy the sad part is tht it could. Hamlet's death could have been avoided many times. Hamlet had many opportunities to kill Claudius, but didn't take advantage of them. He also had the option of making his claim public, but instead he chose not too. A tragic hero doesn't need to be good. For example, MacBeth was evil, yet he was a tragic hero, because he had free will. He also had only one flaw, and that was pride. He had many good traits such as bravery, but his one bad trait made him evil. Also a tragic hero doesn't' have to die. While in all Shakespearean tragedies, the hero dies, in others he may live but suffer oral Destruction In Oedipus Rex, the proud yet morally blind king plucks his eyes out, and has to spend his remaining days as a wandering, sightless beggar, guided at every painful step by his daughter, Antigone. A misconception about tragedies is that nothing good comes out of them, but it is actually the opposite. In Romeo and Juliet, although both die, they end the feud between the Capulets and the Montegues. Also, Romeo and Juliet can be together in heaven. In Hamlet, although Hamlet dies, it is almost the best. How could he have any pleasure during the rest of his life, with his parents and Ophelia dead. Also, although Hamlet dies, he is able to kill Claudius and get rid of the evil ruling of the throne. Every tragic play must have a tragic hero. The tragic hero must possess many good traits, as well as one flaw, which eventually leads to his downfall. A tragic hero must be brave and noble. In Othello, Othello had one fatal flaw, he was too great. Othello was too brave, too noble, and especially too proud to allow himself to be led back to Venice in chains. A tragic hero must not back down from his position. He also had to have free will, in order to stand up for what he believes in. Finally, the audience must have some sympathy for the tragic hero. In Macbeth, although MacBeth commits many murders, one almost feels sorry for him and his fate. Hamlet is the perfect example of the tragic hero. Hamlet has all the good traits needed to be a tragic hero. He is brave and daring. One example of this is that when he went to England, he was taking a big risk. If his plan didn't work, he would have been executed. He also is loyal. His loyalty to his father, was the reason he was so angry at Claudius and his mother. Another trait was that he was intelligent. He was able to think up the idea of faking insanity, in order to get more information about Claudius. But Hamlet like all other tragic heros had a flaw. He couldn't get around to doing anything, because he couldn't move on. He was a full grown adult, yet he still attended school in England, because he couldn't move on. Also, it took him a long time to stop grieving about his father, because he didn't want to move past that party of his life. And after he finally did, Hamlet couldn't get around to killing Claudius. He kept pretending he was insane even after he was sure that Clau dius killed his father. The final

Food and Agricultural Nanotechnology Essay Example

Food and Agricultural Nanotechnology Essay Example Food and Agricultural Nanotechnology Essay Food and Agricultural Nanotechnology Essay Introduction This survey uses grounds reappraisal of the literature, adept evocation, and systems kineticss attacks to analyze consumer credence of agrifood nanotechnology. This chapter hence gives a brief overview of the nutrient and agricultural systems and how nanotechnology interacts with the systems. Current and possible nutrient applications of nanoscience and nanotechnology ; stakeholder perceptual experience of emerging engineerings for agrifood merchandises ; overview of systems kineticss and systems patterning ; and overview of adept evocation, are discussed as a background to the survey. The chapter eventually discusses the theoretical foundation and model of survey Overview of Food and Agricultural Systems The possible applications of nanotechnology in the agrifood system were foremost addressed in 2003 in a roadmap published by the United States Department of Agriculture ( USDA 2003 ) . The anticipation was that the full nutrient supply concatenation would be affected by progresss in nanotechnology. Whatever the impacts of nanotechnology on the agrifood industry and merchandises come ining the market, consumer credence will be a cardinal driver ( Roco 2005 ) . Agribusiness by its nature is integrated to the solutions to most rising national issues, such as H2O direction, infective diseases, rural-urban migration, future energy supply concerns, land direction, the wellness shortage, desertification, clime alteration, and terrorist act, among other concerns ( AAFC 2006 ) . The connexion of agribusiness to these precedences has been categorized into the undermentioned wide subjects by the Science Bureau of the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada ( AAFC 2006 ) : Public wellness, safety and security: The nexus between nutrient, nutrition, wellness and health ; and the safety and security of the capacity to bring forth nutrient Environmental sustainability and stewardship: Agricultural direction patterns that enhance environmental stewardship Energy: Direct coevals of energy from biomass ( e.g. bio-ethanol, bio-diesel, biogas ) and indirect coevals through bioprocess engineerings such as anaerobiotic digestion, pyrolysis, and gasification Global economic competition: The application of agribusiness scientific discipline and invention to back up the international fight and productiveness of farms and agri-industries. : Global agribusiness is in a province of flux despite its connexions to these precedences. Since the latter half of the twentieth Century it has undergone both structural and technological alterations ( AAFC 2006 ) . The agricultural system has become more amalgamate and larger in operational graduated table as a consequence of progresss in agricultural scientific discipline and engineering. This has led to reduced operational costs with each phase of the agribusiness system, and increased international competition ( AAFC 2006 ; Malik et Al. 2009 ) . Progresss in production methods and engineerings have led to diminishing trade good monetary values, partially due to flood. The ensuing diminution in net incomes additions force per unit area to bring forth more and to further cut down operational costs ( AAFC 2006 ) . This coiling consequence has resulted in important impairment in farm profitableness and sustainable growing. This has finally affected fight of the sector and the economi c viability of commodity-dependent communities. Industry stakeholders are discerning about a new age of urgency with the turning call for alteration to the industry ( AAFC 2006 ) . New cognition find and its application are portion of the solution. Agrifood nanotechnologies are in the frontier of this new cognition find and have been predicted to convey cardinal alterations to the agrifood industry. New cognition needs to fuel invention ( Bernstein A ; Singh 2008 ) that, in bend, affects every aspect of nutrient production, altering the manner nutrient is grown, processed, preserved, transported, distributed, and consumed, and this is the promise of nanotechnology in agribusiness. Overview of Agrifood Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is an enabling and a riotous engineering that has the possible to transform the full agribusiness and nutrient systems. Historically agribusiness has dealt with heightening nutrient safety and nutrient security by bettering the efficiency of harvest production, nutrient processing, environmental impacts of nutrient production, storage, transit and distribution. Nanotechnology can be used to turn to these historical concerns, and modern-day ends of nutrient defence. Agrifood systems security, bringing systems for disease intervention in workss and farm animate beings, fresh methods for molecular and cellular biological science, development of new stuffs for pathogen sensing and new ways environmental protection are illustrations of the importance of interplay of nanotechnology in the agrifood systems ( USDA 2003 ) . The applications of nanotechnology in agribusiness and the industry of nutrient merchandises come with its possible hazards. The U.S. is a clear leader in n anofood research and development ( R A ; D ) and nanotechnology research in general. Globally one million millions of dollars have been invested in nanotechnology research and applications in all Fieldss including medical specialty, rural H2O supply, energy, agribusiness, defence, biodiversity and environment. However, the degree and rate of investings varies across different states and legal powers. It has been predicted that by 2010, nanofood merchandises deserving $ 20 billion may be on the market ( Downey 2006 ) . If these tendencies should go on, nanotechnology is expected to go a premier driver and focal point of inventions in the agrifood system in the coming decennary ( Downey 2006 ) . Research and development is taking to 100s of agrifood nanotechnology applications and merchandises and there has been a reported addition of investings by many of the taking transnational nutrient and drink companies in these developments ( Garber 2007 ) . Food packaging is the taking agrifood nanotechnology application and presently nutrient packaging merchandises are the most available nanoproducts on the U.S. markets ( Asadi A ; Mousavi 2006 ; Downey 2006 ) . Nanomaterials are of peculiar significance and are being used to better the safety and quality of nutrient. Nanomaterials inhibit the flow of O and C dioxide by functioning as barriers ( Downey 2006 ) . Nanomaterials can besides be embedded in the packaging and engineered to observe and antagonize food-borne pathogens ( McHugh 2008 ) . Research is presently aimed at conveying the benefits of nanotechnology to society through apprehension and application of affair at the nanoscale. The initial aim to understand nanoscale phe nomena and procedures and to make nanomaterials led to a bustle of basic and cardinal research in the early phases of nanotechnology research. Although there is presently a passage from cardinal research to utile applications in nutrient, there is still a batch of basic research traveling on and the emerging translational research is confronting some major challenges that are pulling a batch of attending ( Bugusu 2006 ) . As stated earlier, the U.S. is presently the leader in research into nanofood applications. The USDA through the Cooperative State Research, Education and Extension Service ( CSREES ) supported and funded research plan on nanobased detectors and its assorted applications in the agrifood systems ( Bugusu 2006 ; USDA 2008 ) . Research on packaging and processing are besides being conducted by the nutrient industry. Some of the largest nutrient makers in the universe, including Nestle, Altria, H.J. Heinz and Unilever, are taking this attempt, while 100s of smaller com panies follow their lead ( Garber 2007 ) . Notwithstanding the possible benefits, compared with other nanotechnology applications and merchandises, nanofoods do non acquire a batch of promotion. The ramping argument over nanofood safety and ordinances has been reported to hold slowed the debut of nanofood merchandises as compared to other nanoproducts, but research and development continue to boom ( Garber 2007 ) . It is besides, interesting to observe that, most of the larger companies are maintaining their activities quiet for fright of public recoil ( Garber 2007 ) . Whereas the hazards associated with nanotechnology applications in other countries such as cosmetics and medical specialty, are every bit ill-defined, the public seems to be far less speedy to accept nanotechnology application when it comes to nutrient supply. Although the hazard associated with nanotechnology remains ill-defined, its possible to positively impact agribusiness and nutrient systems is huge in footings of nutrient merchandise safety and quality, and improved environmental and consumer wellness and health ( Bugusu 2006 ) . Kuzma and VerHage ( 2006 ) have extensively discussed the possible benefits and hazards of agrifood nanotechnology. Harmonizing to their study, there are several possible applications of agrifood nanotechnology in the countries of preciseness harvest and farm animal production. Nanomaterials being developed to heighten the precise usage of agro-chemicals are of peculiar involvement. An illustration is a nanotechnology-based pesticide under development that will merely go active when inside the mark insects ( Downey 2006 ) . Nanotechnology has the potency for supplying more efficient application of pesticides, fertilisers and other agro-chemicals to relieve poorness through improved nutrient security, land usage, and environmental sustainability ( Kuzma A ; VerHage 2006 ) . In relation to functional nutrients, the possible technology of nanomaterials to observe and barricade harmful substances in nutrient, such as unwanted cholesterin or allergens, from impacting the organic structur e will besides be extremely good. The development of nanomaterials that can selectively come in cell walls could convey important nutritionary and wellness benefits ( Downey 2006 ) . However, some of these nanomaterials are inherently different by their nature in footings of chemical responsiveness and physical belongingss from of course happening substances, and could hold unexpected side effects ( Downey 2006 ) . Current and Potential Food Applications of Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is going progressively of import for the nutrient sector, and progresss are already being made in the countries of nutrient packaging and nutrient safety. The incorporation of nanomaterials into nutrient packaging is expected to better the barrier belongingss of packaging stuffs and should thereby assist to cut down the usage of valuable natural stuffs and the coevals of waste ( Sozer A ; Kokini 2009 ) . Edible nanolaminates may besides hold possible utilizations in encapsulation systems for environmental protection ( Chen et al. 2006 ) . These applications could be used in fresh fruits and veggies, bakeshop merchandises and confectionery, where they might protect the nutrient from wet, lipoids, gases, off-flavors and olfactory properties ( Sozer A ; Kokini 2009 ) . Naturally-occurring biopolymers and other biological molecules of nanosize graduated table, such as oligosaccharides or polyoses and proteins, can be used for the encapsulation of vitamins, prebiotics and probiotics preparations, and for drug-delivery systems or nutraceuticals ( Sozer A ; Kokini 2009 ) and as target-specific-recognition agents that could be used as biosensors in nutrients ( Tarver 2008 ) . These biosensors are envisaged to be used as sensors of pathogens and other contaminations in nutrient and for tracking nutrient merchandises to assist ease nutrient callbacks for illustration. These advanced devices and techniques being developed are to ease the readying of nutrient samples and their precise and cheap analysis ( Chen et al. 2006 ) . From this point of position, the development of nanosensors to observe micro-organisms and contaminations is a peculiarly promising application of nutrient nanotechnology. Nanosensors can besides be used in the preparation of nutrient additives such as spirits and antioxidants ( Chaudhry et al. 2008 ) . This is aimed at bettering the functionality of these additives while cut downing their concentration. Although nanotechnology has the possible to happen applications in the full nutrient supply concatenation, commercial applications of many of the methods are presently either excessively expensive or non executable ( Tarver 2008 ) . The most cost-efficient applications of nanotechnology in the nutrient industry are presently in the countries of fresh functional stuffs development, nutrient munition and preparations, nutrient processing at both micro and nano graduated table degrees, nutrient merchandise development, and storage A? ( Tarver 2008 ) . However, the pertinence of nanotechnology in the agrifood industry is certain to increase as research and developments continue to emerge. Consumer credence and the geographic expedition of regulative issues are the chief keys to the success of these promotions. Agrifood manufacturers, makers, every bit good as consumers could do considerable paces in environmental protection, nutrient safety, nutrient security and nutrient defence throug h nanotechnology applications ( Tarver 2008 ) . Stakeholder perceptual experience of emerging engineerings for Agrifood Merchandises Research workers interested in the factors responsible for consumer pick, purchase behaviour, and credence of nutrients processed by novel and emerging nutrient engineerings, such as nanotechnology, biotechnology, ionising radiation, pulsed electric Fieldss, and ultraviolet optical maser intervention, face disputing jobs ( Cardello 2003 ) . Optimizing the centripetal quality of these nutrients is of import to consumer credence and their success in the market topographic point as it is with most nutrient merchandises ( Siegrist 2008 ) . However, optimum centripetal quality, entirely, will non vouch consumer credence. This is because consumer perceptual experiences of nutrient quality do non depend entirely on the intrinsic centripetal features of the merchandise. Rather, they rely to a great extent on a host of factors that are extrinsic to the merchandise ( Cardello 2003 ) . Variables related to both the merchandise and the prospective consumer of the merchandise like contextual, cog nitive, societal, cultural and attitudinal factors are extrinsic to the merchandise. In the instance of fresh nutrients or nutrients that have been processed by novel or emerging engineerings, concerns about the nature of the nutrient and/or the nature of the processing engineerings that have been used to handle the nutrient, become paramount considerations for the consumer faced with pick and purchase determinations ( Cardello 2003 ) . It is by and large agreed that sensed benefit is an of import factor act uponing credence of new nutrients ( Frewer et al. 2003 ) . However, even though a figure of surveies have demonstrated the importance of sensed benefits for the credence of new nutrient engineerings, credence of fresh nutrient by consumers can non be reduced to it ( Siegrist 2008 ) and this is one of the motives for this survey. By and large, consumers see new nutrient engineerings as more hazardous than traditional nutrient engineerings ( Siegrist 2008 ) . Merchandise belongingss besides influence consumer credence of new merchandises. Gene engineering is good accepted for medical applications, but European consumers for case are hesitating to purchase GM nutrients ( Boecker A ; Nzuma 2007 ) . This clearly illustrates that credence of a new engineering may be influenced by belongingss and usage of the merchandise. Another factor related to the merchandise is the monetary value. A bulk of British consumers seems willing to buy GM nutrients if they are cheaper than traditional nutrients ( Spence A ; Townsend 2006 ) . On the whole, perceived naturalness seems to be an of import factor act uponing credence of fresh nutrient engineerings in add-on to comprehend benefits, perceived hazards, quality and monetary value ( Cox et al. 2006 ) . Consumers have really limited cognition of new engineerings, such as nanotechnology ( Cobb 2005 ) . As a consequence, most consumers are unable to make up ones mind whether new nutrients produced by such engineerings are associated with possible hazards. A manner people deal with deficiency of cognition is to trust on trust to cut down the complexness of determinations ( Siegrist 2008 ) . Some surveies have found that trust in establishments, or in scientists carry oning research on familial alteration or utilizing modified merchandises, is an of import factor act uponing perceptual experience of cistron engineering ( Siegrist et al. 2007a ) . Trust is said to hold an impact on sensed hazard every bit good as on sensed benefit and an indirect impact on the credence of, or willingness to purchase, GM nutrients. It has besides been postulated that attitudes toward new nutrient engineerings may be embedded in a system of general attitudes and values ( Grunert et al. 2003 ) . Peoples use semantically connected information for these appraisals and the rating of a new engineering has been found to depend on the constructs and images that are related to this new nutrient engineering ( Siegrist 2008 ) . Environmental attitudes have besides been found to hold a moderate influence on credence of cistron engineering ( Siegrist 2008 ) . Consumers hesitate to accept fresh nutrient engineerings and nutrients processed with emerging engineerings associated with potentially new hazards without any clear benefits. It is of extreme importance, hence, that consumers and the populace in general be informed and educated about possible benefits and hazards of fresh nutrient engineerings ( Siegrist 2008 ) . If a new engineering allows the debut of new and advanced merchandises with clear and touchable benefits, consumers are most likely to accept it ( Bruhn 2008 ; Siegrist 2008 ) . Successful merchandise development is driven by consumer demands, and consumer credence is a cardinal facet ( MacFie 2007 ) . The nutrient engineering used to make a merchandise may act upon consumers willingness to purchase it ( Siegrist 2008 ) . However, the nutrient engineering is less of import when the merchandise is extremely good and satisfies consumers demands. Consumers may non accept a new nutrient engineering when they are convinced that the engineering provides no extra value to them or to society and may merely hold advantages for manufacturers and the industry ( Siegrist 2008 ) . There are barely any negative public reactions to high force per unit area treating engineerings of nutrient although it has besides got its attender hazard and some degree of uncertainness ( Butz et al. 2003 ) . In contrast, other nutrient engineerings, such as cistron engineering, are non good accepted in Europe ( Gaskell et al. 2000 ; Boecker A ; Nzuma 2007 ) . Public credence is, nevertheless, an unfastened inquiry for other nutrient engineerings such as nanotechnology ( Siegrist 2008 ) , which has the possible to bring forth radically new nutrient merchandises and is progressively being employed in the countries of nutrient production and packaging ( Kuzma A ; VerHage 2006 ) . How the populace will respond to nanotechnology nutrient merchandises is, at present, ill-defined ( Siegrist et al. 2007a ) . In order to examine these and other inquiries, this survey is utilizing grounds reappraisal of the literature, experts sentiment, and systems mapping to analyze consumer attitudes towards agrifood nanotechnology. Overview of Systems Dynamics and Systems Modeling Harmonizing to Barlas ( 2008 ) the term system refers to world A? or some facets of world. He defined a system as a aggregation of interconnected elements, organizing a meaningful whole A? ( Barlas 2008 ) . It is common hence, to speak about a transit system, a fiscal system, an invention system, a societal system, a legal system, a political system, a health care system, a production system, a distribution system, an ecological system, an educational system, an agrifood system, or a biological system. Every individual one of these systems is made of different factors and belongingss interacting and linked in a eventful manner, so that the system on the whole can presumptively function its intents ( Barlas 2008 ) . Modeling A? is a normally used scientific attack for job designation and creative activity of solutions infinites. A theoretical account can be defined as a representation of selected facets of a existent system with regard to some particular job ( s ) A? ( Barlas 2008 ) . Therefore, theoretical accounts of systems, A? are non built, but theoretical accounts of selected facets of systems to analyze specific jobs are built. As with this survey, agrifood systems are non being built, non even agrifood nanotechnology systems, but merely a constituent with agrifood nanotechnology consumer credence. The chief factor that drives the usage of mold is a job. The term dynamic, in mundane usage, means in gesture or altering over clip and dynamic jobs have variables that change significantly over clip. System kineticss as a subject uses systemic feedback mechanisms to cover with dynamic policy jobs ( Barlas 2008 ) . Such jobs arise from the interactions between the different variables that characterize the system and from the feedbacks between the decision-making actions and the corresponding system s reactions. The chief end of a system kineticss survey is to place a dynamic job and to understand the causes of the job, and so hunt for policies that alleviate or eliminate those jobs ( Barlas 2008 ) . System kineticss patterning is a tool that can account for complex and dynamic characteristics of systems. It is in its babyhood for turn toing policy inquiries related to scientific discipline and engineering, yet it has been shown to be a powerful and edifying tool for concern determinations. System kineticss is an attack that allows for the apprehension of complex systems over clip. Whereas, most theoretical accounts are additive with get downing and end points, system kineticss sees the universe as it is, with non-linear and interacting parts that feedback to and impact each other. It uses basic constructs like stocks A? ( degrees of measures that change over clip and necessitate to be tracked ) and flows A? ( rates of alteration ) . System kineticss patterning is a tool which addresses complexness and incorporates feedback cringles in systems, and the consequences of system kineticss theoretical accounts have shown to be valuable in placing factors that affect results of pro cedures, plans, and determinations ( Sterman 2001 ) . The first usage of system kineticss patterning day of the months back to 50 old ages ago for industrial kineticss A? or determinations about concerns, work force, and merchandise markets ( Forrester 1958 ) . Since so, system kineticss has been used to foretell results of medical intervention, land, economic, lodging and environmental policy ( SDS 2007 ) . In several cases, research workers have been able to accurately foretell unintended effects of public policies through utilizing system kineticss believing, function and theoretical accounts, such as the unforeseen impact that low cost lodging plans increases unemployment ( Forrester 1969 ) . Many groups are utilizing system kineticss to develop systems theoretical accounts collaboratively with the multiple ends of bi-directional communicating and acquisition, public battle, and better word pictures of real-world system ( Stave 2002 ) . The agrifood sector extends from input supply industries and agribusiness to nutrient processing, nutrient distribution, and retail ( Porter 1998 ) . In the flow of merchandises throughout the value concatenation as shown in figure 2.1 the sequence of different phases of sourcing, production, processing, and distribution involved in the proviso of nutrient to consumers , the interrelatednesss between the histrions constitute a classical ? ?System Dynamics environment, which is characterized by procedures that incorporate feedback loops every bit good as sequences of causes and effects with possible clip holds in between ( Fritz A ; Schiefer 2008a ) . The interrelatednesss spans nutrient supply ironss where they might stay stable due to contracts or imposts or nutrient supply webs where interrelatednesss develop dynamically through altering trade relationships from within a web of different endeavors that are active at each one of the phases of the value concatenation ( Fritz A ; Schiefer 2008b ) . The web scenario, which is dominant in most of the sector, poses a specific challenge for research to originate and back up the necessary invention and development kineticss to guarantee merchandise features like nutrient safety, nutrient quality or nutrient beginning at the consumers terminal ( Thompson, 2007 ) . This dynamics go even more interconnected when one considers the multidisciplinary nature of nanotechnology and its applications in the agrifood system ( Please refer to calculate 1.1 ) . The systems kineticss package used in this survey is Vensim. Features include dynamic maps, subscripting ( arrays ) , Monte Carlo sensitiveness analysis, optimisation, informations handling, application interfaces, and much more A? ( Vensim A ; Acirc ; Â ® 2008 ) . System dynamics theoretical accounts consist of assorted sorts of factors with different variables interconnected by causal pointers. Conventionally stock variables or accretions are represented with a box. Flows A? go in and out of stocks and are responsible for commanding the rate of alteration in a peculiar stock over clip. The altering stocks so provide the dynamic alteration over clip in the overall system. System dynamics methodological analysis is widely applied in patterning and analysing supply concatenation behaviour under unsure environment ( Vo A ; Thiel 2008 ) . The nature of a system in system kineticss methodological analysis is demonstrated by causal cringle ( influence ) diagrams which describes the major feedback mechanisms ( Georgiadis et al. 2005 ) . These mechanisms are either negative ( equilibrating ) feedback cringle which displays a goal-seeking behaviour where after an break, the system tries to return to a province of equilibrium, or positive feedback ( reenforcing ) loops where initial break creates a subsequent alteration bespeaking an unstable equilibrium ( Vlachos et al. 2007 ) . Causal loop diagrams play two major functions in system kineticss: ( 1 ) they serve as the initial studies of causal hypotheses during theoretical account development, and ( 2 ) they are used for the simplification of how a theoretical account is represented ( Georgiadis et al. 2005 ) . The representation of a dynamic system theoretical account incorporates both stock ( province ) and flow ( rate ) variables. Stock variables are what is referred to as the accretions ( i.e. stock lists ) , within the system, while flow variables show the flows in the system ( i.e. order rate ) , which are the by-product of the managerial procedure. The theoretical account construction and the interrelatednesss among the variables are represented by stock-flow diagrams. The mathematical function of a system dynamics stock-flow diagram occurs via a set of differential equations, which are numerically solved via simulation ( Georgiadis et al. 2005 ) . Although there are fluctuations in attacks to a typical system kineticss study depending on the nature of the job and manner of the modeller, specific standard stairss are by and large followed ( Barlas 2008 ; Maani A ; Cavana 2000 ) : Problem designation and definition ( purpose ) ; dynamic hypothesis and theoretical account conceptualisation ; formal theoretical account building ( The formal simulation theoretical account is built during this measure ) ; model credibleness ( cogency ) testing ; analysis of the theoretical account ; and design betterment ( After to the full proving and understanding the belongingss of the theoretical account, the concluding measure is to prove policy options to better the kineticss of the theoretical account ) . In this last measure, policy options are formulated and so tested by running simulations ( Barlas 2008 ; Maani A ; Cavana 2000 ) . In this survey, as portion of job designation and theoretical account building, adept evocation and grounds from the literature were used to bring forth the needed information. Overview of Expert Elicitation The term expert has non been defined utilizing any quantitative step but has been used to depict any single or group of individuals whose current or past Fieldss are in the country of survey, and who is/are seen as being more knowing about the topic ( Cooke A ; Goossens 2004 ) . Adept designation for a peculiar topic implies acquiring persons or individuals whose country of work or pattern is in that peculiar capable country and whom others regard as knowing. Although adept cognition is non a certainty it has ever played a big function in scientific discipline, engineering and technology and it is used within certain degree of assurance, acceptableness or grade of belief ( Van der Fels-Klerz et Al. 2002 ) . There is a wide acceptableness of adept judgement as merely another type of scientific informations, and methods are progressively being developed for handling it as such ( Goossens et al. 2008 ) . Adept sentiment is on a regular basis sought when proficient uncertainness or ambiguity impacts on a determination procedure ; and beging adept advice in such instances is non new ( Aspinall 2008 ) . Historically, it has been approached on an informal footing, and it has neer been found wholly fulfilling or immuned to legalize unfavorable judgment, by all stakeholders ( Aspinall 2008 ) . To avoid these defects, a well-designed expert judgement evocation is designed to handle adept sentiments as scientific information in a formal determination procedure by subjecting the whole procedure to transparent methodological regulations ( Aspinall 2008 ; USEPA 2009 ) . Assorted methods for arousing and measuring experts judgement and uniting adept uncertainness are available in the literature and have been used in pattern ( Morgan et al. 2001 ) . The simplest and the most preferable method in the absence of a better alternate, is to take all expect tonss to hold equal weight ( Cooke A ; Goos sens 1999 ) . Although this attack has an obvious entreaty, it has its jobs. An expert with a really strong divergent sentiment from the other experts can hold a immense impact on the resulting decision. This becomes a critical issue if this expert s appraisals can non be decently explained ( Hoffmann 2006 ) . However, as more and more experts are brought into the survey, the weight of the mark of an single expert tends to go rather diffuse. Another job associated with adept evocation is the systematic certitude exhibited by both experts and non-experts ( Morgan et al. 2001 ) . That is, given their cognition ; their subjective chance distributions tend to be excessively narrow A? ( Morgan et al. 2001 ) . After the set of experts has been identified as portion of the procedure, a determination is made as to which experts to utilize in the survey. In most surveies, the largest figure of experts is chosen based on the degree and handiness of resources ( Cooke et al. 2000 ) . Experts used in some old noteworthy surveies have been within the scope of 5 20 ( Linkov et al. 2006 ; Morgan A ; Henrion 1990 ) . Harmonizing to Cooke et Al. ( 2000 ) a panel of eight experts is to be recommended as a regulation of pollex ; and in any event, at least four experts for a given topic should be chosen A? . The usage of experts names is another repeating issue in the literature. The general consensus nevertheless, is that adept names and associations should be portion of the published study but single experts should non be associated by name with their appraisals ( Cooke A ; Probst 2006 ; USEPA 2009 ) . Based on several different grounds, the association should b

Portfolio risk management Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Portfolio risk management - Essay Example tfolio analysis studies the performance of different portfolios under different circumstances (Reilly & Brown 2011).Portfolios can be grouped according to industries, countries or sector. Each group consists of sub-unit. For example, the financial sector can be made up of several banks or the Airline industry can be made up of several airline companies. The analysis of each portfolio helps an investor in making a decision when investing. Most likely, a rational investor will choose the best portfolio and screen out the ones that are not essential based on objective criteria. A good portfolio is characterized by high returns on investment (Reilly & Brown 2011). Portfolio analysis requires subjective judgment as it is not easy to segment different industries. Portfolio analysis is a process as different financial instruments have to be evaluated one by one. The process is time consuming and involves a lot of effort. In spite of these odds, Markowitz the fonder of modern portfolio analy sis has simplified the process by suggesting use of expected return and variance (Brigham & Houston 2009). In this report, we will discuss four steps of constructing a portfolio. Q 1.a Construction of a portfolio The portfolio we are to construct consists of IBM and Shell Gas shares using weekly data from 2007 to 2012. A good portfolio is characterized by high returns and moderate risk. It is also well diversified just like in our case where we have IBM and Shell Gas shares. The first step in constructing a portfolio is an assessment of your expectations and attitude towards risk. Basically, there are two types of investors, the aggressive investor and the conservative investor. An aggressive investor is willing to take more risks by devoting larger portions to equity and less to bond and other fixed income securities. On the contrary, the conservative investor takes less risk as his main goal is to protect the value. On the other hand, an aggressive investor aims at maximizing retu rns by accepting more risk. A moderately good portfolio is one which satisfies the tolerance of average risks, attracts all those people who are willing to take in more risks in their portfolios in order to help them in the achievement of a balance of capital growth and income. Therefore, as an investor you should be in a position of knowing the category where you suit. The second step is choosing the portfolio. In our case, we consider the individual shares that have high returns and have the outperformed the FTSE 250 mid-cap index (FTMC). The portfolio will have 21 shares. Below is the portfolio f our choice: After choosing the portfolio, the next step is to identify, risk and return. In identifying risk and return, we use mean-variance analysis which was derived by Markowitz in 1952. Markowitz (2000) suggests that a portfolio with the lowest level of risk is to be